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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.